Storch Speaks; Patent Updated

For those who SOMEHOW haven’t been poring over the comments of our older posts, I wanted to highlight a note we got from Josh Storch, the man who is probably related to Paul Storch who patented a method for “evaluating the performance of a relief pitcher in the late innings of a baseball game.” Well, it turns out he’s been busy perfecting another patent with an updated formula.  He also has a website with a simplified formula and data that you can play with.  Thanks for checking in, Josh.  Now everyone else: go check out http://www.reliefstat.com.  (I’m looking at you, Mr. GM of the White Sox, Ken Williams). 

 Here’s the actual comment:

Josh Storch here… Paul and I have since updated this formula and filed for a new patent. We’d really like to see more discussion out there about how to evaluate relief pitchers when inherited runners are involved. We created a website which simplifies the formula and has some relief quotient data for actual pitchers. We want people check it out and share their thoughts: http://www.reliefstat.com.  We’ll continue populating the data section; in the meantime, enjoy.

Guest Blogger: MJ’s Thoughts on Joba Rules 2.0 (In Brief)

Although my inclination is to believe manager Joe Girardi when he says that players’ roles will be defined at the end of spring training and not the beginning, it does seem fairly certain that the Yanks will be employing some form of the “Joba Rules” in 2008.

The current story is that Joba will be the primary setup man for Mariano Rivera from April-June and that at some point thereafter, he’ll be sent down to the minors to make a few starts in order to prepare his arm for the more taxing role of joining the rotation. Once he is recalled (probably sometime after the All-Star Break), he will be inserted into the rotation for the remainder of the season.

Here are my comments:

• Before addressing this version of the plan, I must ask: who will Chamberlain be replacing after he comes back from the minors in July? If everything goes according to plan – and we all know that over 162 games, it never does – the Yanks will have a rotation of Chien-Ming Wang, Andy Pettitte, Mike Mussina, Philip Hughes, and Ian Kennedy. If they’re all doing their jobs, where does Chamberlain fit in?
• Assuming something goes awry (safe assumption), the Yanks will be relying on Jeff Karstens, Darrell Rasner, and (don’t laugh) Kei Igawa. Of the three, Karstens is the most capable of filling in as a spot-starter. Check out his stats at this year’s World Cup…not too shabby! I’m still not seeing a spot for Chamberlain since I don’t predict the Yanks will go to a six-man rotation.
• Ok, onto the meat and potatoes of my problems with this version of the plan being floated by the media…

1. Although Girardi has a reputation for being less than old-school, I generally believe that all managers are conservative by nature, especially in New York where the second-guess rate is so high. If Chamberlain excels as an 8th inning pitcher and the next guy (Farnsworth? Veras? Britton?) flops, the temptation to pigeon-hole Joba back into that role will be too great.
2. If the inclination is to make Joba a starter, why not use him in the Johan Santana 2002/2003 role? Santana would get 3-5 innings every week or so, plus he could be used against selected batters or in high-leverage situations. Breaking him in at the big league level with that kind of workload worked for Santana so I don’t see why people are talking about putting him into two different worlds (short relief, then starting).
3. I don’t like the expectation that a pitcher can use two pitches (fastball/slider) for the first two months of the season, then go down to the minors for a while, and then come back with a good feel for his secondary pitches (curveball/changeup). Pitchers work on all of their stuff in spring training and then develop their feel as the weather improves in April and into May. Pitchers usually hit their stride six weeks into the season. This plan would ask Joba to work on all four pitches in spring training, shelve them for a long period of time, go back and work on them again (against minor league hitting), and then expect them to be sharp against big league hitters.
4. Finally, what is the opportunity cost in the form of replacement players? By this I mean, why would the Yanks want to take such a good pitcher and put him back in the minors for a three to five week period? By giving Chamberlain his apprenticeship in a Santana-like role, the team wouldn’t have to bring up an otherwise ill-prepared and no doubt inferior player onto their 25 man roster.

I guess that wasn’t so brief. I hope, at least, that it was coherent. Like I said before, this is just the media’s theory on Joba Rules 2.0. We’ll know more in six weeks.

Jim Leyland Agrees With Me!

Leyland rationally believes, as do I, that his team’s starting pitching will be more important than his team’s relief pitching in 2008:

“I’m not as concerned with bullpen as much as everybody else is,” Leyland said during TigerFest. “I think it’s going to be fine.

“Assuming that Todd Jones is going to do another good job for us and Fernando Rodney continues to be a quality major-league pitcher, not a great pitcher, but a quality pitcher, I think those looking at the bullpen are probably looking at the wrong area.”

Then what’s the right area?

“We need to extend our starting pitchers more,” Leyland said. “I think the big keys will be (Jeremy) Bonderman, (Nate) Robertson and (Dontrelle) Willis. If those guys can take you an extra out or an extra 2/3 of an inning, that’s going to be the key to this team.”

Thanks for the support, Jim. I also enjoyed your labeling of Fernando Rodney as a “quality pitcher,” but not a “great pitcher.”

Joba Rules 2.0

As reported by the New York Post. Thoughts to come…

Michael Rosenberg: Friend of the Loogy Lounge

Now let’s have a little friendly disagreement. While I’m hesitant to criticize a writer who extols the virtues of relief pitching, Rosenberg’s article today goes a little overboard on the importance of relief pitching in the regular season.

Rosenberg believes that, despite improvements in the off-season, the Tigers are still missing one “crucial piece of the puzzle” — relief pitching. I tend to agree: the Tigers enter the season with Fernando Rodney (inconsistent), Jason Grilli (mediocre), Tim Byrdak (wild), Zach Miner (unproven), and Bobby Seay (one good, full year in six-year career).

Rosenberg goes on to write:

Relief pitching was the biggest reason the Indians won the AL Central over the Tigers. Tigers relievers had a 4.40 ERA; Indians relievers had a 3.75 ERA.

Sorry, Michael. As much as I’d like to agree, this just isn’t true. A .65 difference in bullpen ERA is not the biggest reason why the Indians finished eight games above the Tigers in 2007. The Yankees, as one of many counter-examples, finished 11 games ahead of the Blue Jays despite the Blue Jays’ bullpen ERA being nearly a run less.

In 2007, the Indians had two ace pitchers (Carmona, 151 ERA+; Sabathia, 143 ERA+) and some decent complementary pitchers. The Tigers, on the other hand, had one ace (Verlander, 125 ERA+) and a lot of crap after him. This was the reason that Cleveland finished 8 games ahead of Detroit. And, by the way, this remains as another “piece of the puzzle” missing from the 2008 Tigers, unless you’re counting on the D-Train to regain his 2005 form.

Yanks Re-Sign Bruney; Hope He Re-Grows Mustache

The Yankees avoided salary arbitration and signed Brian Bruney to a one-year, $725,000 contract. Bruney had a disappointing 2007 after a short, successful stint with the Yanks in 2006, at which time he had a killer mustache.  Should Bruney re-grow said mustache for the 2008 season, it will be a very interesting bullpen battle between him, Jose Veras, Edwar Ramirez, Chris Britton, Ross Ohlendorf, and Jonathan “Dejo” Albaladejo.

Prediction: The pitchers that emerge from this group will be better than Scott Linebrink and Octavio Dotel this year.

Super Tuesday for Rudy!

Old Red Sox disaster and LA Dodger RHP Rudy Seanez signed a $550,000 base salary deal (with up to $1.3MM in incentives) for a shot at getting his arm destroyed by new Dodger manager, Joe Torre.

Showing Up = Half the Battle

 

Thanks for the new passive agressive tag, John Stevens.  As a Sox/Celts/Pats fan, I am upset at the events of February Third, Two-Thousand-and-Eight.  That said, the Loogy Lounge placed a respectable fifth (of 20!) in the inaugural HHR Fantasy Football Playoff Cup.  Thanks to the guys at Hugging Harold Reynolds for a good tourney.  We’re on the lookout for a good middle-reliever fantasy league if anyone has any leads.

Finally, Congrats to the Chief, who took home his self-designed trophy:

If necessary, David Tyree would have made his final catch using nothing but his cup. What an @$$&*!#. Dammitall. How do you hold on to that thing? I mean, forchrissakes, we had Eli sacked!! #@$*&^k

Pitchers and Catchers Soon!

I’ve been locked away doing research in preparation for the upcoming season… get psyched for some top-grade analysis.

By the way, in order to prepare as much as possible, I decided to skip the Superbowl last night; I figured the Pats’ destiny-laden undefeated season was a lock.  I haven’t caught any news yet today. Was I right?