Rudy’s Campaign Ends Abruptly

Dodgers release Rudy Seanez. Score one for team “Signing Old Relievers is Not Wise.” At least Seanez’s contract with the Dodgers was mostly incentives-based, allowing them to kick him to the curb without much hesitancy.  ‘Fraid I can’t say the same for some of the other absurd signings we saw this past off-season.

White Sox F*** Up Again

First, Scott Linebrink. Now, Octavio Dotel. Here’s a list of things that are wrong with this signing (feel free to add anything I forget):

1. $5.5 million per year! Dotel is now the 3rd highest paid pitcher on the White Sox behind Mark Buehrle and Jose Contreras. Bobby Jenks, who pitched like 800 shutout innings in a row last year, makes less than $500,000 per year. To land a big contract as a relief pitcher, I guess you have to wait until you’re over-the-hill.
2. A two-year deal for a guy who cannot stay healthy for two years. I can’t wait for the White Sox to pay Dotel $5.5 million in 2009 while he rehabs his inevitable shoulder injury.
3. Maybe I’m missing something, but Dotel, who’s 34 now, has been pretty mediocre since 2004. Do White Sox execs have updated statistics incorporating the 2005-2007 seasons? If not, let’s get them those numbers. If so, I guess the White Sox expect some kind of Roger Clemens-non-steroid-induced-late-30’s resurgence.

Apropos to the White Sox, I read an article a few weeks ago (which I can’t find right now), opining that the White Sox are now one of the top AL teams. This is wrong. Their bullpen isn’t all that great, even if they get healthy years from Linebrink and Dotel. Their projected five starters — Buehrle, Vazquez, Contreras, Danks, and Floyd — are middle-of-the-road by AL standards. And, despite the additions of Orlando Cabrera and Nick Swisher, their offense is nowhere near the likes of the Red Sox, Tigers, and Yankees. Led by the inept Ozzie Guillen, I expect this team to be marginally better than last year, but not a playoff contender.

Blue Jays Sign Shawn Camp!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Its been slow going for the past couple of weeks, so this is welcome news. Would you want to be in the batter’s box facing this Papelbon-like glare?

I didn’t think so! Get pumped, Toronto!!!!

Deja Vu

A low-budget team signs an old relief pitcher, making him one of the team’s highest paid players. Sound familiar?

This time, the guy — Ron Mahay — is really old (he’ll turn 37 next season).   He has had a decent career and was pretty good last year, though terrible against righties.   To new Kansas City manager, Trey Hillman:  if you want this signing to work out at all,  do not use Mahay against righties.  Ever.

Prediction:  Trey Hillman uses Ron Mahay against righties, causing the Royals to regret the fact that they’ve guaranteed the reliever $4 million in 2009.

A Few Links…

- First the Mitchell Report, now this. Many relief pitchers are in the news for the wrong reasons lately.

- Yankees’ right-handed relievers, Jose Veras and Jonathan “Dejo” Albaladejo, are showing promise in the Dominican League.

- The Mets signed Matt Wise to a one-year deal for $1.2 million. Not too exciting, except for this fact, which the article points out:

Comically, Wise is infamous for an injury inflicted by a pair of salad tongs. He sliced his middle finger last June, which forced him to miss a couple of games.

- With Mike Gonzalez out until after the All-Star Break, the Braves are interested in Brian Fuentes.

- The Astros signed right-handed journeyman, Chad Paronto. Not that it’s Paranto’s fault, but even with all of their recent moves, the Astros still suck.

- And, finally, this from Connor Robertson, the reliever acquired by the Diamondbacks in the Dan Haren trade:

But middle relief, I think that’s a fun part of the game. Especially if you can help get your starter out of a jam, or help another pitcher get out of a jam. That’s just a great feeling.

Being a reliever, you’re not in the spotlight that much… it’s kind of like the offensive line of baseball.

Amen, Connor. Amen.

Yanks Getting Bullpen Savvy

The Yankees weren’t willing to give an older reliever a multi-year deal, and thus, in effect, ended up trading Luis Vizcaino, 33, to the Rockies for LaTroy Hawkins plus a supplemental draft pick. After rejecting a one-year deal with the Yanks through arbitration, the Rockies signed Vizcaino to a two-year deal for $7.5 million, with a vesting option for a third year that would bring the total amount of the contract to $11 million if Vizcaino makes 68 appearances in 2009. Hawkins will earn the same amount in 2008, but his contract is for just one year.

If you’ve taken anything away from this blog during its one glorious month of existence, it should be this: do not sign thirty-something relief pitchers to multi-year deals. Because of their erratic nature, it’s a huge gamble that cuts into the payrolls of small-market teams and limits the roster flexibility of big-market teams.

Luis Vizcaino and LaTroy Hawkins have had similar levels of success in the majors. If I had to guess, I’d say that Vizcaino will be somewhat more productive next year — as Hawkins was this past year — because he’ll be pitching in the National League. But with relievers, you never know. And that’s why the Yankees came out better in this swap.

Below: Vizcaino in a really awkward, full-body photograph.

LaTroy Hawkins To Be First “LaTroy” to Pitch For Yankees, But Not First “Hawkins”

Here’s a brief, exciting e-mail exchange between me and loyal Loogite and fellow Yankees’ fan, MJ, on this signing:

MJ:

LaTroy Hawkins is close to becoming a Yankee for 2008. He’s apparently going to get himself a one-year deal at $3.75M. It’s a one year deal which is nice but LaTroy Hawkins isn’t exactly what I’d call lights-out. On the bright side, Farnsworth now has a former teammate he can walk back from the bullpen with (2004 Cubs).

John Stevens:

Hawkins is very shaky, but with the current state of free-agent relief signings, I guess a one-year deal is the most you can hope for. This seems to squeeze out one of Veras or Ohlendorf. Not sure Hawkins is an upgrade.

MJ:

I don’t know who it squeezes but the Yanks definitely seem to be collecting righties for the bullpen. I guess it’s not a bad thing because they can always have Bruney/Britton/Veras/Ohlendorf/Ramirez in the minors on the ready as a musical chairs bullpen. Spring training will be interesting to see how Girardi builds his bullpen around Rivera and Farnsworth.

Brewers’ Revamped Pen… Sucks

The Brewers made an unfathomable trade on Friday, sending two minor-league relief pitchers to the Pirates for Salomon Torres. Comically, the title of the article I came across reads: Brewers Bolster Bullpen (nice alliteration!). At the same time, the article states: “To acquire Torres, the Brewers parted with two good, young arms from their system.” Is 36-year-old Salomon Torres really worth this? Why not just take a shot with one of these kids? Torres sucks. He has a career 4.40 ERA, 99 ERA+, and 1.431 WHIP. Last year, his numbers were even worse.

How could this get more terrible for the Brewers? Well… Torres is unhappy with the trade and is considering retirement. Awesome! Oh, and now, Eric Gagne has reportedly signed a one-year deal worth $10 million to close for the Brew Crew. That makes him the second-highest paid Brewer.

The Brewers are going to be bad next year. If you don’t think so, please post a comment and include your contact information so that I can make a bet with you.

** But see Olney, Buster. Apparently Buster might be interested in betting:

[T]he Milwaukee Brewers signed Gagne to a $10 million deal, a contract that would represent about 14 percent of their entire 2007 payroll of $71 million. And it may turn out to be precisely the right decision for them to make, at this particular time . . .

The Brewers traded for Salomon Torres, but he may retire, and in any event, he had a horrible run as the Pirates’ closer.

No, the Brewers needed somebody else. They had to do something, because this team is too good and has too much potential for 2008 to have left such a gaping hole left untended . . .
The Gagne signing is a proportional response, an expensive patch-and-fill job that keeps them in the running for next year but also freed them from any long-term obligation in the volatile relief market. And they keep their prospects for another day, for other trade talks.

Actual Stats & Relievers’ Contracts

So I posted a link to a The Hardball Times story before about middle relievers.  That one was good, though certainly just full of the author’s guesses and conjecture.  Turns out that there was another (better, more fully researched) article (using “numbers” and “stats”) on THT, by Dave Studeman, detailing the relative value of long vs. short contracts for relief pitchers:

[L]et’s look at the Net Win Shares Value of relievers only, broken into groups of different contract lengths:

   Years  Contracts    Sum of Net WS Val     Average
     1         59           $3,683,410       $62,431
     2         22            -$758,941      -$34,497
     3         12         -$16,414,954   -$1,367,913
     4          2             $745,055      $372,528
     5          1          -$4,760,281   -$4,760,281
  Total        96         -$17,505,710     -$182,351

Keith Law is right. Relievers broke the general pattern last year; the most valuable relievers were those with one-year deals. In fact, were it not for the four-year deals (Billy Wagner and Justin Speier), there would have been a consistent downward trend in average Net Win Shares Value from short- to long-term contracts.

As bullpen usage has grown from year to year, bullpen success has become a more important contributor to team success. But bullpen success if fleeting and enigmatic. To make the point statistically, I looked at the runs allowed per nine innings for all pitchers who started at least 15 games in both 2006 and 2007 (96 in all), and found a correlation between the two of .38. Then I looked at the same stat for all pitchers who relieved in at least 30 games both years (113) and found a correlation of .20. Bullpen performance is going to vary a lot, even if the underlying skill of the pitcher doesn’t change.

So teams are in a trap. Because of evolving game strategies, they’ve become more dependent on something that is inherently inconsistent. When they fail, the tendency is to panic by signing relievers to relatively rich, long-term deals. As more money flows into the game, the situation intensifies. Teams without young arms pay more and more (in dollars and length) for more questionable talent.

Last year, Kenny Williams took a rational approach to his bullpen. He built around closer Bobby Jenks by signing up some power arms like Mike MacDougal and Matt Thornton to relatively inexpensive three-year contracts and brought some other viable candidates into camp (Andy Sisco, Nick Masset, etc.), hoping to catch lightning in a bottle. It didn’t pan out, and Williams is now showing signs of panic by signing relievers like Linebrink to four-year deals.

That’s too bad. GM’s who try to buy consistent bullpen excellence in the free agent market are setting themselves up for disappointment.

I think the most interesting piece about this article, and therefore The Loogy Lounge, is that relief pitchers do not follow any typical trends in baseball contracts.  The better players didn’t necessarily get the better (longer/richer) contracts.  But don’t worry, John Stevens and I are not your typical bloggers.  We’re better looking. And have real, full-time jobs.  We’ll figure this out before long…

Blowing Minds, Wads, Cash: THT on the Bullpen Salary Explosion

Geoff Young posts an article over at The Hardball Times, asking essentially the same question that we’ve being throwing around (here, here, here, and here) : “Why do teams keep overpaying generic middle relievers?“  He actually tries to understand it, where we’ve just been generally ridiculing it: 

Do the Phillies and White Sox believe that they have done a better job of identifying relievers at which to throw their money? Do they believe that Baltimore’s strategy was sound but that the outcome couldn’t have been predicted given the available information (i.e., the Orioles were unlucky)? Do they even know or care what the Orioles did?

Throw out that last possibility. If you’re not studying the forces that create the market, then you’re not studying the market. No way that’s happening, right? Not with the money at stake.

How about the “unlucky” theory? Somehow the idea that the outcome in Baltimore couldn’t have been predicted seems naive to me. People who are charged with evaluating such things should be able to recognize a priori that guys like Walker and Baez aren’t going to save anyone’s team. Then again, the Orioles evidently reached that very conclusion, so maybe I’m the one being naive.

Honestly, the belief that one’s own staff has done a better job of identifying talent strikes me as most reasonable. I’m not sure how anyone could reach the conclusion that Romero and Linebrink are appreciably better than Walker and Baez, but I can understand the logic. The thinking is that the flaw wasn’t in strategy but rather in execution. Even if that thinking is flawed, at least it’s somewhat defensible.