Joba The Starter

Well, I guess this was inevitable. But why now? Because the Yankees are 21-25 and in the A.L. East cellar? Because Darrell Rasner is the 2nd best pitcher on the Yankees? These are ostensibly justifications for starting Joba, but to me, its just Yankees’ brass succumbing to New York media pressure. To be clear, like Hank, I’m all for Joba starting. But for a guy that wasn’t allowed to pitch more than an inning at a time every other day last year, this is a HUGE move to make mid-season. Unlike the relief-pitcher role, where any live arm can come in and dominate, starting requires a period of transition and adaptation, as MJ suggested in his guest post:

Pitchers work on all of their stuff in spring training and then develop their feel as the weather improves in April and into May. Pitchers usually hit their stride six weeks into the season. This plan would ask Joba to work on all four pitches in spring training, shelve them for a long period of time, go back and work on them again (against minor league hitting), and then expect them to be sharp against big league hitters.

I guess the plan is for Joba to work 2 innings for a few games, then 3, then 4, then 5, and by July 1 (?), he’ll be ready to be an effective starter.  My fear is that this transition is not as sufficient as a full spring training would have been, and in six weeks, Joba is going to be a mediocre starting pitcher.  The ramifications of this?

New York Post, August 1, 2008:  “Joba Should’ve Stayed in Bullpen”

Everyone who stupidly claimed that Joba, like Papelboner, is better suited for a relief role than a starter role, will be vindicated.  And by Spring Training 2009, Joba is a lifetime bullpen guy because that’s where he showed he can dominate.

This might sound like a worst-case scenario, but I think throwing Joba into the starting mix like this jeopardizes his future as a starter.   The risk is greater than the reward given that the Yankees are not a championship-caliber team this year, even if Joba performs well.  I pray to Babe Ruth’s corpse that everything works out and that Joba excels as a starter immediately, as he did as a setup guy, but I don’t have my hopes up.

Hankenstein

In his short tenure, Hank Steinbrenner has already shown himself to be a loudmouthed idiot; but, he made a good deal of sense in his most recent tirade about Joba Chamberlain:

I want him as a starter and so does everyone else, including him, and that is what we are working toward and we need him there now. There is no question about it, you don’t have a guy with a 100-mile-per-hour fastball and keep him as a setup guy. You just don’t do that. You have to be an idiot to do that.

Joba Rules 2.0

Confirmed

Guest Blogger: MJ’s Thoughts on Joba Rules 2.0 (In Brief)

Although my inclination is to believe manager Joe Girardi when he says that players’ roles will be defined at the end of spring training and not the beginning, it does seem fairly certain that the Yanks will be employing some form of the “Joba Rules” in 2008.

The current story is that Joba will be the primary setup man for Mariano Rivera from April-June and that at some point thereafter, he’ll be sent down to the minors to make a few starts in order to prepare his arm for the more taxing role of joining the rotation. Once he is recalled (probably sometime after the All-Star Break), he will be inserted into the rotation for the remainder of the season.

Here are my comments:

• Before addressing this version of the plan, I must ask: who will Chamberlain be replacing after he comes back from the minors in July? If everything goes according to plan – and we all know that over 162 games, it never does – the Yanks will have a rotation of Chien-Ming Wang, Andy Pettitte, Mike Mussina, Philip Hughes, and Ian Kennedy. If they’re all doing their jobs, where does Chamberlain fit in?
• Assuming something goes awry (safe assumption), the Yanks will be relying on Jeff Karstens, Darrell Rasner, and (don’t laugh) Kei Igawa. Of the three, Karstens is the most capable of filling in as a spot-starter. Check out his stats at this year’s World Cup…not too shabby! I’m still not seeing a spot for Chamberlain since I don’t predict the Yanks will go to a six-man rotation.
• Ok, onto the meat and potatoes of my problems with this version of the plan being floated by the media…

1. Although Girardi has a reputation for being less than old-school, I generally believe that all managers are conservative by nature, especially in New York where the second-guess rate is so high. If Chamberlain excels as an 8th inning pitcher and the next guy (Farnsworth? Veras? Britton?) flops, the temptation to pigeon-hole Joba back into that role will be too great.
2. If the inclination is to make Joba a starter, why not use him in the Johan Santana 2002/2003 role? Santana would get 3-5 innings every week or so, plus he could be used against selected batters or in high-leverage situations. Breaking him in at the big league level with that kind of workload worked for Santana so I don’t see why people are talking about putting him into two different worlds (short relief, then starting).
3. I don’t like the expectation that a pitcher can use two pitches (fastball/slider) for the first two months of the season, then go down to the minors for a while, and then come back with a good feel for his secondary pitches (curveball/changeup). Pitchers work on all of their stuff in spring training and then develop their feel as the weather improves in April and into May. Pitchers usually hit their stride six weeks into the season. This plan would ask Joba to work on all four pitches in spring training, shelve them for a long period of time, go back and work on them again (against minor league hitting), and then expect them to be sharp against big league hitters.
4. Finally, what is the opportunity cost in the form of replacement players? By this I mean, why would the Yanks want to take such a good pitcher and put him back in the minors for a three to five week period? By giving Chamberlain his apprenticeship in a Santana-like role, the team wouldn’t have to bring up an otherwise ill-prepared and no doubt inferior player onto their 25 man roster.

I guess that wasn’t so brief. I hope, at least, that it was coherent. Like I said before, this is just the media’s theory on Joba Rules 2.0. We’ll know more in six weeks.

Joba Rules 2.0

As reported by the New York Post. Thoughts to come…

Surfing the Bullpenternet – 1/15 Edition

Things have slowed down a great deal at the Loogy Lounge, as well as in the Hot Stove. For those paying attention, we’re getting HOUSED in the Hugging Harold Reynolds post-season fantasy football league.  The good news is we have 10 players left.

Here’s some recent news and commentary from the Bullpenternet:

• Mets Geek breaks down the Hot Stove Winners and the Loser in both the AL and the NL:  They give the Rockies bullpen moves a “neutral” and the Royals bullpen moves a “loser” designation. [Mets Geek]
• There’s so little hope at Enron Field Rangers Ballpark in Arlington, that Jamey Wright is looking like some kind of answer for the Rangers. [The Ranger Rundown]
• Yankees fans are dreaming their outsized dreams: “If Goose Deserves To Be In The Hall……then Joba should stay in the bullpen. Think about it. Hey, at least Goose agrees with me, but middle relievers never get any respect.” [Five O'Clock Lightning]
• Tigers fans are rightfully feeling pretty good about themselves.  Can a killer line-up make up for a no name bullpen?  [Mack Avenue Tigers]
• How does Seattle replace fan-favorite George Sherrill? You know, if they have to… [Bleeding Blue and Teal]
• And one more Yankees bit. Janks Fans, put Joba in the rotation. Billy Traber is in the house…so, is RHP Scott Strickland and LHP Heath Phillips. NJ.com notes: “Looks like the Yanks bullpen strategy is quantity, not quality.” [True Yankee Blog; NJ.com's Pride of the Yankees]

Top Relievers in 2007

So, I had planned to post a thorough review of the top relievers of 2007 a few days ago. Sorry — my NYE Spinach & Artichoke Dip preparation got in the way. Now, because 2007 is so yesterday, here’s my cop-out Top Five list (please note that this list is in no way based upon holds or saves):

* Honorable mention: Pat Neshek, Tony Pena, Rafael Perez, Chad Qualls, Brandon Lyon

5. Joba Chamberlain – He was called up on August 8, but his name belongs on this list because: (1) he had an utterly dominant two-month stretch, helping to propel the Yankees to the postseason; (2) he achieved icon status in New York in record time; and (3) I’m a biased Yankees’ fan.

4. Carlos Marmol – Was nearly N.L. MVP. Plus, 96 K’s in 69.1 innings!

3. Hideki Okajima - The silver lining for us Yankees’ fans is that Jeemer struggled in the second half of the season; perhaps the league caught up to him a bit. Nevertheless, he was lights out in the first half and a major contributor to Boston’s championship season. Who woulda thunk that he’d be Boston’s best Japanese import?

2. Rafael Betancourt – I almost put him at number one, but because the Mitchell Report can selectively single out a small percentage of players who might have used PEDs, I choose to selectively discount Betancourt’s 2007 accomplishments because of his positive test a few years back. That said, Betancourt was awesome this past season. See, e.g., 312 ERA+!!!!

1. Heath Bell - A year ago, the Mets sent Bell to Kevin Towers’s Padres after a disappointing 2006 campaign. In 2007, Bell made, to say the least, a dramatic turnaround. While most of his numbers are similarly impressive as compared to the other guys on this list, what stands out the most, and what made Bell such a valuable reliever in 2007, is that he put those numbers up over 81 games and 93.2 innings pitched. In other words, Joe Torre would love to get this guy in a Dodgers uniform.

His arm might fall off by the middle of 2008, but, in 2007, Heath Bell was the best middle-relief pitcher in baseball. Congratulations, Heath!

Joba to Relieve and Start in 2008?

With Wang, Pettitte, Mussina, Hughes, and Kennedy (assuming no trades), does it make more sense to put Joba in the bullpen next year and insert him into the rotation when one of those guys either goes down or is ineffective?

Good, brief analysis on this issue by River Ave. Blues.

My vote:  no.  If the Yanks want Joba in the ‘pen next year, I think you keep him there all year.   If he’s coming in to get 3 batters out during spring training and part of the season (possibly every other game per Joba Rules), I see little upside in putting him into the starter role where he’ll probably have trouble lasting longer than 5 innings.

Thoughts?

Joba Understands Importance of Relief Pitchers

Joba Chamberlain is a kid with his head on straight. After signing autographs for students at Modell’s in Times Square (Gnopple — did you go to see him?), Joba told reporters that whether it’s starting or relieving next year, it’s a “win-win.” The Yankees have indicated that Joba will start, but it’s clear that he just wants to help the Yanks reclaim their place as baseball’s best:

“Whether I pitch 200 innings or 90, I think the jobs are equal. I’m starting another life. I hope I can help them any way.”

Joba is one of the reasons why — despite Boston’s purported rise to being the best in baseball — it’s fun to be a Yankees fan again. And, apropos to this blog, Joba is the most exciting reliever out there. Unfortunately for us, it looks like he’s exiting Loogy Land, leaving us up to our ears in Scott Linebrink, etc.