2008 Preview: AL Contenders’ Bullpens

There are always surprises over the court of 162 games, but heading into 2008, there appear to be two playoff-caliber teams in each American League division. I’ve ranked the bullpens of those teams below. While rankings are generally useless, particularly for bullpens, it’s fun to look back on them months later and realize how wrong you were.

(1) Cleveland Indians - Joe Borowski is still the closer, but I think Eric Wedge realizes that the Rafaels are so much more valuable as a righty/lefty relief tandem; there isn’t a better bullpen duo in all of baseball. The Tribe added a hot-dog-eating champion cum relief pitcher in the off-season, and I’m a fan of young Vanderbilt alumnus, Jensen Lewis.

(2) New York Yankees - Playing favorites, are we? Well, kind of, but I really do like the Yankees’ bullpen this year more than I have in several years. When Joba moves out in June, as reportedly planned, this ranking might not hold, but as we stand right now, the Yanks have Joba, Mariano, Hawkins, Farnsworth, and the winners of the Bruney/Dejo/Ramirez/Ohlendorf/Veras/Britton battle for innings. The Yankees ascribed to the relief-pitcher free-agent method I’ve generally espoused on this site. In some respects, their success or lack thereof this year will be a reflection on me.

(3) Boston Red Sox - to quote Mr. Kesuke Miyagi, “Daniel-San! OK to lose to opponent. Never OK to lose to FEAR.”

I think the Okajimer Steamer is going to get hit early this year, lose confidence, and be a shell of his 2007 self. And that’ll be the thing that separates the Yanks’ bullpen and Red Sox’s bullpen; Joba will be better than Okajima. Boston’s supporting cast — Delcarmen, Timlin, Tavarez, Lopez, Snyder, Aardsma — shows promise similar to the Yankees’ bullpen.

(4) Los Angeles Angels - the once-dominant Angels bullpen comes into the 2008 season with more question marks than in recent years. K-Rod should be fine, but Scot Shields showed signs of wear-and-tear last season. That’s what happens when a reliever goes close to one-hundred innings per season for several years. Justin Speier is pretty solid, but let’s hope his recent hard-core spat with semi-competent lefty-reliever Darren Oliver doesn’t carry into the season. The rest of the bullpen consists of Chris Bootcheck, who is hurt and not very good anyway, and several rookies. Look out for Darren O’Day to emerge from this group and play an important role in the Angels’ bullpen this year.

(5) Seattle Mariners - After J.J. Putz, who emerged last season as the best closer in baseball, this bullpen is not too hot. It lost George Sherrill to the Orioles in the off-season, leaving Brandon Morrow and Sean Green to pick up the slack. In 2007, Morrow walked 50 batters in 63 IP and opponents hit .298 against Green. Those numbers are scary. There is some promise, however, for the Mariners. Eric O’Flaherty is a decent lefty specialist, and several young guys could be in line for the job left open by Sherrill. I expect Ryan Rowland-Smith to be in the mix at some point this season, if not right away. Oh, the Mariners also have a knuckle-balling reliever with no ulnar collateral ligament in his elbow. So they’ve got that going for them.

(6) Detroit Tigers - We’ve gone over the Tigers bullpen before with our friend, Michael Rosenberg. While I disagreed that the bullpen was the Tigers’ biggest problem — the starting pitching sucks after Verlander — it certainly is a problem. And it’s even more of a problem now that Fernando Rodney is out to begin the season. The Tigers are going to need a breakthrough performance from someone, because Tim Byrdak, Denny Bautista, Jason Grilli, Zach Miner, and Bobby Seay is not going to hack it all season. At least the city of Detroit has hope for the bullpen…

• http://www.detnews.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080319/SPORTS0104/803190366/1129/rss15
• http://blog.mlive.com/cutoffman/2008/03/sicom_tigers_bullpen_a_serious.html
• http://www.mlive.com/sportsflash/michigan/index.ssf?/base/sports-28/1206192544317550.xml&storylist=michigansports
• http://www.freep.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080212/COL22/802120384/1081

Some March Links

Its been awhile. You look great. Here are some links as a reward for your patience.

- Ross Ohlendorf: Yankee reliever second, cattle rancher first

- Didn’t realize that Byung-Hyun Kim was on the Pirates. Despite the fact that his team won in 2001, I’ve actually always felt some pity for BK.

- George Sherrill is off to a good start in Baltimore.

- Man, I hope Armando Benitez makes the Blue Jays’ roster. He’d be absolutely destroyed in the A.L. East.

- Juan Rincon is hoping to bounce back this year. He’s only had one good year in his seven-year career; I’m not so optimistic.

That’s all for now. AL Preview coming soon…

Also: Mike Celizic (a/k/a “Hat Guy”), common foil for the boys at FJM, discusses the rise of the professional set-up guy.

Yanks Re-Sign Bruney; Hope He Re-Grows Mustache

The Yankees avoided salary arbitration and signed Brian Bruney to a one-year, $725,000 contract. Bruney had a disappointing 2007 after a short, successful stint with the Yanks in 2006, at which time he had a killer mustache.  Should Bruney re-grow said mustache for the 2008 season, it will be a very interesting bullpen battle between him, Jose Veras, Edwar Ramirez, Chris Britton, Ross Ohlendorf, and Jonathan “Dejo” Albaladejo.

Prediction: The pitchers that emerge from this group will be better than Scott Linebrink and Octavio Dotel this year.

White Sox F*** Up Again

First, Scott Linebrink. Now, Octavio Dotel. Here’s a list of things that are wrong with this signing (feel free to add anything I forget):

1. $5.5 million per year! Dotel is now the 3rd highest paid pitcher on the White Sox behind Mark Buehrle and Jose Contreras. Bobby Jenks, who pitched like 800 shutout innings in a row last year, makes less than $500,000 per year. To land a big contract as a relief pitcher, I guess you have to wait until you’re over-the-hill.
2. A two-year deal for a guy who cannot stay healthy for two years. I can’t wait for the White Sox to pay Dotel $5.5 million in 2009 while he rehabs his inevitable shoulder injury.
3. Maybe I’m missing something, but Dotel, who’s 34 now, has been pretty mediocre since 2004. Do White Sox execs have updated statistics incorporating the 2005-2007 seasons? If not, let’s get them those numbers. If so, I guess the White Sox expect some kind of Roger Clemens-non-steroid-induced-late-30’s resurgence.

Apropos to the White Sox, I read an article a few weeks ago (which I can’t find right now), opining that the White Sox are now one of the top AL teams. This is wrong. Their bullpen isn’t all that great, even if they get healthy years from Linebrink and Dotel. Their projected five starters — Buehrle, Vazquez, Contreras, Danks, and Floyd — are middle-of-the-road by AL standards. And, despite the additions of Orlando Cabrera and Nick Swisher, their offense is nowhere near the likes of the Red Sox, Tigers, and Yankees. Led by the inept Ozzie Guillen, I expect this team to be marginally better than last year, but not a playoff contender.

Deja Vu

A low-budget team signs an old relief pitcher, making him one of the team’s highest paid players. Sound familiar?

This time, the guy — Ron Mahay — is really old (he’ll turn 37 next season).   He has had a decent career and was pretty good last year, though terrible against righties.   To new Kansas City manager, Trey Hillman:  if you want this signing to work out at all,  do not use Mahay against righties.  Ever.

Prediction:  Trey Hillman uses Ron Mahay against righties, causing the Royals to regret the fact that they’ve guaranteed the reliever $4 million in 2009.

Which Random Middle Relievers Will Be Named in the Mitchell Report?

For every Barry Bonds or Rafael Palmeiro, there’s a Jason Grimsley or Guillermo Mota. In light of the news that the Mitchell Report, to be released Thursday, will contain approximately fifty names of former and current MLBers, expect some unheralded middle-relief pitchers to be on that list.

Here are three random players I predict to be named:*

(1) Vinnie Chulk (Giants) – Barry’s partner-in-crime

(2) Brendan Donnelly (Red Sox) – put an asterisk on the 2007 championship

(3) Tanyon Sturtze (inactive/retired) – my favorite Yankee in 2004-2005

*These predictions are based on absolutely nothing. Except scientific fact.

Brewers’ Revamped Pen… Sucks

The Brewers made an unfathomable trade on Friday, sending two minor-league relief pitchers to the Pirates for Salomon Torres. Comically, the title of the article I came across reads: Brewers Bolster Bullpen (nice alliteration!). At the same time, the article states: “To acquire Torres, the Brewers parted with two good, young arms from their system.” Is 36-year-old Salomon Torres really worth this? Why not just take a shot with one of these kids? Torres sucks. He has a career 4.40 ERA, 99 ERA+, and 1.431 WHIP. Last year, his numbers were even worse.

How could this get more terrible for the Brewers? Well… Torres is unhappy with the trade and is considering retirement. Awesome! Oh, and now, Eric Gagne has reportedly signed a one-year deal worth $10 million to close for the Brew Crew. That makes him the second-highest paid Brewer.

The Brewers are going to be bad next year. If you don’t think so, please post a comment and include your contact information so that I can make a bet with you.

** But see Olney, Buster. Apparently Buster might be interested in betting:

[T]he Milwaukee Brewers signed Gagne to a $10 million deal, a contract that would represent about 14 percent of their entire 2007 payroll of $71 million. And it may turn out to be precisely the right decision for them to make, at this particular time . . .

The Brewers traded for Salomon Torres, but he may retire, and in any event, he had a horrible run as the Pirates’ closer.

No, the Brewers needed somebody else. They had to do something, because this team is too good and has too much potential for 2008 to have left such a gaping hole left untended . . .
The Gagne signing is a proportional response, an expensive patch-and-fill job that keeps them in the running for next year but also freed them from any long-term obligation in the volatile relief market. And they keep their prospects for another day, for other trade talks.

Gnopple Rejoices… For Now

Animal killer, Mike Timlin, has signed a one-year, $3 million deal with the Red Sox.  Mark this down:  the Red Sox’s bullpen will be their Achilles Heel next year.  That will be fun to write about.