Yanks Re-Sign Bruney; Hope He Re-Grows Mustache

The Yankees avoided salary arbitration and signed Brian Bruney to a one-year, $725,000 contract. Bruney had a disappointing 2007 after a short, successful stint with the Yanks in 2006, at which time he had a killer mustache.  Should Bruney re-grow said mustache for the 2008 season, it will be a very interesting bullpen battle between him, Jose Veras, Edwar Ramirez, Chris Britton, Ross Ohlendorf, and Jonathan “Dejo” Albaladejo.

Prediction: The pitchers that emerge from this group will be better than Scott Linebrink and Octavio Dotel this year.

White Sox F*** Up Again

First, Scott Linebrink. Now, Octavio Dotel. Here’s a list of things that are wrong with this signing (feel free to add anything I forget):

1. $5.5 million per year! Dotel is now the 3rd highest paid pitcher on the White Sox behind Mark Buehrle and Jose Contreras. Bobby Jenks, who pitched like 800 shutout innings in a row last year, makes less than $500,000 per year. To land a big contract as a relief pitcher, I guess you have to wait until you’re over-the-hill.
2. A two-year deal for a guy who cannot stay healthy for two years. I can’t wait for the White Sox to pay Dotel $5.5 million in 2009 while he rehabs his inevitable shoulder injury.
3. Maybe I’m missing something, but Dotel, who’s 34 now, has been pretty mediocre since 2004. Do White Sox execs have updated statistics incorporating the 2005-2007 seasons? If not, let’s get them those numbers. If so, I guess the White Sox expect some kind of Roger Clemens-non-steroid-induced-late-30’s resurgence.

Apropos to the White Sox, I read an article a few weeks ago (which I can’t find right now), opining that the White Sox are now one of the top AL teams. This is wrong. Their bullpen isn’t all that great, even if they get healthy years from Linebrink and Dotel. Their projected five starters — Buehrle, Vazquez, Contreras, Danks, and Floyd — are middle-of-the-road by AL standards. And, despite the additions of Orlando Cabrera and Nick Swisher, their offense is nowhere near the likes of the Red Sox, Tigers, and Yankees. Led by the inept Ozzie Guillen, I expect this team to be marginally better than last year, but not a playoff contender.

Joba Understands Importance of Relief Pitchers

Joba Chamberlain is a kid with his head on straight. After signing autographs for students at Modell’s in Times Square (Gnopple — did you go to see him?), Joba told reporters that whether it’s starting or relieving next year, it’s a “win-win.” The Yankees have indicated that Joba will start, but it’s clear that he just wants to help the Yanks reclaim their place as baseball’s best:

“Whether I pitch 200 innings or 90, I think the jobs are equal. I’m starting another life. I hope I can help them any way.”

Joba is one of the reasons why — despite Boston’s purported rise to being the best in baseball — it’s fun to be a Yankees fan again. And, apropos to this blog, Joba is the most exciting reliever out there. Unfortunately for us, it looks like he’s exiting Loogy Land, leaving us up to our ears in Scott Linebrink, etc.

Blowing Minds, Wads, Cash: THT on the Bullpen Salary Explosion

Geoff Young posts an article over at The Hardball Times, asking essentially the same question that we’ve being throwing around (here, here, here, and here) : “Why do teams keep overpaying generic middle relievers?“  He actually tries to understand it, where we’ve just been generally ridiculing it: 

Do the Phillies and White Sox believe that they have done a better job of identifying relievers at which to throw their money? Do they believe that Baltimore’s strategy was sound but that the outcome couldn’t have been predicted given the available information (i.e., the Orioles were unlucky)? Do they even know or care what the Orioles did?

Throw out that last possibility. If you’re not studying the forces that create the market, then you’re not studying the market. No way that’s happening, right? Not with the money at stake.

How about the “unlucky” theory? Somehow the idea that the outcome in Baltimore couldn’t have been predicted seems naive to me. People who are charged with evaluating such things should be able to recognize a priori that guys like Walker and Baez aren’t going to save anyone’s team. Then again, the Orioles evidently reached that very conclusion, so maybe I’m the one being naive.

Honestly, the belief that one’s own staff has done a better job of identifying talent strikes me as most reasonable. I’m not sure how anyone could reach the conclusion that Romero and Linebrink are appreciably better than Walker and Baez, but I can understand the logic. The thinking is that the flaw wasn’t in strategy but rather in execution. Even if that thinking is flawed, at least it’s somewhat defensible.

Linebrink Well Aware He’s Overpaid

Scott Linebrink sat down with the media yesterday to explain why he sucked last August, yet deserves his large set-up contract.  Turns out it’s his kid’s fault:

Right-hander Scott Linebrink’s hope for next season is to provide relief for a White Sox bullpen that went through 2007 with more face-lifts than Joan Rivers.

On Thursday, he simply was trying to ease the minds of fans who felt the Sox paid too much for his services.

After going from San Diego to Milwaukee last season in a trade-deadline deal, Linebrink raised some eyebrows when he failed to have the expected impact on the Brewers’ bullpen, especially with a 1-3 record and 5.40 ERA in August.

The 31-year-old wasn’t making excuses for his ‘07 hiccup during his first meeting with the media since signing a four-year, $19 million free-agent contract with the Sox. But he said he had his reasons for the letdown.

”It was a challenging season for me,” Linebrink said. ”There were a lot of things going on off the field. We had the birth of my daughter right after the All-Star Game, and then I was traded. I rebounded, but mentally there was a fight to get into the game.”

Remember Our Veterans

I like old people. But why do teams want veteran free-agent middle-relief pitchers so badly? Today’s example comes from an article discussing the Rangers’ off-season needs:

They want to add a veteran relief pitcher who can work late in the game...

They have interest in Eric Gagne coming back as their closer, but they may stick with Otsuka or Wilson as their ninth-inning guy and concentrate on finding a setup reliever. There is depth on the free-agent market in that area, including David Riske, Octavio Dotel, LaTroy Hawkins, Matt Herges, Ron Mahay, Rudy Seanez and Doug Brocail.

31-year-old Riske is a nice arm, and hasn’t exhibited Linebrink-like decline yet. After that, despite various degrees of success last year, there’s a lot of mileage on the arms of Dotel (33), Hawkins (34), Herges (37), Mahay (36), Seanez (39), Brocail (40). As I’ve written before, having these guys in your bullpen isn’t necessarily a bad thing. But veterans — like Linebrink — require more money and more security. To fill that last hole or two in the bullpen, a team would be wiser to take its chances with young pitchers who they won’t be stuck with if things don’t work out.

Disabled List Offers Kerry Wood $4.2 Million

This move was a no-brainer after Mark Prior’s last successful deal. Zing!

Actually, I don’t really mind this deal. It’s not nearly as offensive as the other Chicago team’s recent relief signing. Why? It’s a one-year deal with incentives for a guy with upside. And by “upside,” I mean that when healthy, Wood can still strike guys out at a terrific rate. In 2005 and 2007 — his two years with bullpen work — Wood struck out 77 in 66 IP and 24 in 24.1 IP. (By comparison, Linebrink’s strikeout rate recently has dropped).

Who’ll be better in 2008? Tough to say — lot’s of variables. Will Wood stay healthy? Will he be the Cubs’ closer? Will Linebrink adapt to the American League and having an insane manager? If you forced me to pick one for my team next year, I’d take my chances with Wood.

The easier question: which team will be happier in 2009? Much better chance that it’s the Cubs.

Below: Wood and close friend Mark Prior pose for a picture following the announcement of Wood’s new contract.

Surfing the Bullpenternet

A quick look at what others are saying about middle relief:

• ‘Anorexic’ Mets: Mets fans start sweating (and stop spell-checking) after they failed to sign Cordero or Linebrink. (Mets Fever)
• Yanks fans, on the other hand, are ecstatic that some other bonehead GM overpaid Linebrink before Cashman could. (The New York Yankees Baseball Blog)

• It may have been the going rate, but you don’t have to like the Linebrink and Cordero signings; why not try the “trial and error” method for constructing a bullpen? (Hardball Review)
• For his part, Keith Law sees a troubling trend this offseason: (ESPN Insider)
  

  After Steve Karsay’s four-year deal, signed before the 2002 season, went bust, we saw just one three-year deal given to a reliever (Armando Benitez, who threw 118 innings with a 4.55 ERA during the deal) until B.J. Ryan’s five-year deal, signed in November of 2005. That month, we saw the destruction of the market’s reluctance to give long-term deals to relief pitchers, especially middle relievers, and the result has been a relative flood of three-, four-, and even five-year contracts for such free agents. After two winters of these contracts, however, the track record is already not good.

• Dbacks fans give out unsung hero awards to Edgar Gonzalez, Brandon Lyon, and their pitching coach, Bryan Price. (AZ Snakepit)
• Did you ever wonder who owns the “Most Consecutive Games with a Home Run Allowed by a Relief Pitcher” record? Yeah, me neither. (Recondite Baseball)

Scott Linebrink: Probably Not Gay

… because this guy’s team just signed him to a 4-year, $19-million contract. Also, more importantly, Linebrink probably is not worth that many years for that kind of money.  You long-time Loogy Lounge readers might remember Gnopple’s first post, which highlighted a good SI article by Tom Verducci.  Here’s what Tom had to say about Linebrink:

Towers, in the middle of a pennant race, traded off his own version of Romero: Scott Linebrink, who was about to turn 31, and headed for free agency, a big payday and a likely regression.

Towers had picked up Linebrink on waivers from Houston in 2003. Over the next three seasons the Padres used Linebrink 73 times each year and paid him a total of $2.6 million. Just as the mileage-to-salary ratio was about to get out of whack, Towers turned Linebrink into his next budget-friendly reliever, Joe Thatcher, who posted a 1.29 ERA after his trade from Milwaukee.

Indeed, Linebrink actually has already begun to regress:

• 2004:  2.14 ERA/181 ERA+/1.036 WHIP
• 2005:  1.83 ERA/210 ERA+/1.059 WHIP
• 2006:  3.57 ERA/113 ERA+/1.216 WHIP
• 2007:  3.71 ERA/113 ERA+/1.322 WHIP.

Look, Linebrink’s not a bad arm to have in the bullpen.  Even his 06′/07′ numbers are above average.  It’s difficult to imagine, however, that Linebrink — a 31-year-old reliever moving to the American League for the first time in his career — will regain his once-excellent form.  For that reason, 4 years at $19 million seems like a bit much.